ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: Admission in the intensive care unit of the old patient with coronavirus disease 19 raises an ethical question concerning the scarce resources and their short-term mortality. METHODS: Patients aged over 60 from 7 different intensive care units admitted between March 1, 2020 and May 6, 2020, with a diagnosis of coronavirus disease 19 were included in the cohort. Twenty variables were collected during the admission, such as age, severity (Simplified Acute Physiology Score [SAPS] II), several data on physiological status before intensive care unit comorbidities, evaluation of autonomy, frailty, and biological variables. The objective was to model the 30-day mortality with relevant variables, compute their odds ratio associated with their 95% CI, and produce a nomogram to easily estimate and communicate the 30-day mortality. The performance of the model was estimated with the area under the receiving operating curve. RESULTS: We included 231 patients, among them 60 (26.0%) patients have died on the 30th day. The relevant variables selected to explain the 30-day mortality were Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) score (0.82 [0.71-0.94]), age 1.12 (1.07-1.18), SAPS II 1.05 (1.02-1.08), and dementia 6.22 (1.00-38.58). A nomogram was computed to visually represent the final model. Area under the receiving operating curve was at 0.833 (0.776-0.889). CONCLUSIONS: Age, autonomy, dementia, and severity at admission were important predictive variables for the 30-day mortality status, and the nomogram could help the physician in the decision-making process and the communication with the family.
ABSTRACT
The SARS-COV2 pandemic induces tensions on health systems and ethical dilemmas. Practitioners need help tools to define patients not candidate for ICU admission. A multicentre observational study was performed to evaluate the impact of age and geriatric parameters on 30-day mortality in patients aged ≥60 years of age. Patients or next of kin were asked to answer a phone questionnaire assessing geriatric covariates 1 month before ICU admission. Among 290 screened patients, 231 were included between March 7 and May 7, 2020. In univariate, factors associated with lower 30-day survival were: age (per 10 years increase; OR 3.43, [95%CI: 2.13-5.53]), ≥3 CIRS-G grade ≥2 comorbidities (OR 2.49 [95%CI: 1.36-4.56]), impaired ADL, (OR 4.86 [95%CI: 2.44-9.72]), impaired IADL8 (OR 6.33 [95%CI: 3.31-12.10], p<0.001), frailty according to the Fried score (OR 4.33 [95%CI: 2.03-9.24]) or the CFS ≥5 (OR 3.79 [95%CI: 1.76-8.15]), 6-month fall history (OR 3.46 [95%CI: 1.58-7.63]). The final multivariate model included age (per 10 years increase; 2.94 [95%CI:1.78-5.04], p<0.001) and impaired IADL8 (OR 5.69 [95%CI: 2.90-11.47], p<0.001)). Considered as continuous variables, the model led to an AUC of 0.78 [95% CI: 0.72, 0.85]. Age and IADL8 provide independent prognostic factors for 30-day mortality in the considered population. Considering a risk of death exceeding 80% (82.6% [95%CI: 61.2% - 95.0%]), patients aged over 80 years with at least 1 IADL impairment appear as poor candidates for ICU admission.